Paulie's Place - Increasingly Inevitable
Saturday, September 27, 2008
I mean, Spain?!
I tried watching the first presidential debate through the eyes of someone who did not make up their mind yet. Obviously, in the end that turned out to be impossible. But I tried watching it objectively. During the debate I kept feeling that Obama was taking too much hits. As always, he was very gracious and friendly, but that approach didn't always work for him in the debates with Hilary. He did get some good jabs in last night, the most memorable for me:
And, John, I -- you're absolutely right that presidents have to be prudent in what they say. But, you know, coming from you, who, you know, in the past has threatened extinction for North Korea and, you know, sung songs about bombing Iran, I don't know, you know, how credible that is. I think this is the right strategy.
But perhaps as important: Obama won 62%-32% on the question "who is more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you".
CBS also shows Obama as the winner.
So I feel better about his performance now than I did shortly after it. I didn't think he did bad, but I do still believe he had more opportunities to "hurt" McCain. People remember the negatives more than positives. On the other hand, Obama could play it safe, he just had to make sure he could convince the doubters he knows what he's talking about when it comes to foreign policy.
McCain was very aggresive and at times angry and grumpy. Not once did he look Obama in the eyes, as if he was refusing to acknowledge that he shared a stage with him. It may have hurt him more than it helped him. I don't remember one answer that did not mention his opponent. In fact, he may have spend more time attacking Obama than explaining his own position.
From a Dutch perspective
This is not how debates are done in The Netherlands. Debates in the United States seem almost like a boxing match: whoever gets the most punches in wins. Political debates in The Netherlands are (usually) more like a game of chess. The debaters are allowed to take their time, and there's no 2 minute blocks or timers running in the background (I know, maybe the chess analogy wasn't the best, forget the timers ;). The winner is generally the most knowledgable person (or the person who comes off as most knowledgeable). The debates in the United States here are more entertaining to watch but it has more to do with marketing than actually gaining any knowledge. You don't usually learn of new stances or ideas.
That said, I look forward to the vice presidential debate. This should make for some great entertainment! The only trap for Biden is that the bar for Palin is now pretty much on the floor. The only thing she has to do to exceed expectations is show up and make English words come out of her mouth (forget comprehension, people already know that's out of her league) .
We shall see. ¶ 9/27/2008 11:29:00 AM 6 Comments
And, John, I -- you're absolutely right that presidents have to be prudent in what they say. But, you know, coming from you, who, you know, in the past has threatened extinction for North Korea and, you know, sung songs about bombing Iran, I don't know, you know, how credible that is. I think this is the right strategy.
He even said the other day that he would not meet potentially with the prime minister of Spain, because he -- you know, he wasn't sure whether they were aligned with us. I mean, Spain?! Spain is a NATO ally.
But I was pretty sure media were going to announce McCain the winner. And most did. But the interesting part is that first CNN poll that came out (very quickly after the debate) showed that most viewers gave Obama the victory 51%-38%.But perhaps as important: Obama won 62%-32% on the question "who is more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you".
CBS also shows Obama as the winner.
So I feel better about his performance now than I did shortly after it. I didn't think he did bad, but I do still believe he had more opportunities to "hurt" McCain. People remember the negatives more than positives. On the other hand, Obama could play it safe, he just had to make sure he could convince the doubters he knows what he's talking about when it comes to foreign policy.
McCain was very aggresive and at times angry and grumpy. Not once did he look Obama in the eyes, as if he was refusing to acknowledge that he shared a stage with him. It may have hurt him more than it helped him. I don't remember one answer that did not mention his opponent. In fact, he may have spend more time attacking Obama than explaining his own position.
From a Dutch perspective
This is not how debates are done in The Netherlands. Debates in the United States seem almost like a boxing match: whoever gets the most punches in wins. Political debates in The Netherlands are (usually) more like a game of chess. The debaters are allowed to take their time, and there's no 2 minute blocks or timers running in the background (I know, maybe the chess analogy wasn't the best, forget the timers ;). The winner is generally the most knowledgable person (or the person who comes off as most knowledgeable). The debates in the United States here are more entertaining to watch but it has more to do with marketing than actually gaining any knowledge. You don't usually learn of new stances or ideas.
That said, I look forward to the vice presidential debate. This should make for some great entertainment! The only trap for Biden is that the bar for Palin is now pretty much on the floor. The only thing she has to do to exceed expectations is show up and make English words come out of her mouth (forget comprehension, people already know that's out of her league) .
We shall see. ¶ 9/27/2008 11:29:00 AM 6 Comments
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Five to nothing
I've been doing a little polling myself around the block here in southern Ohio.
Sept 23rd.
McCain / Palin signs: 5Obama / Biden signs: 0
Come on man, I know that this is a rural area and I have no hopes this miserable county will go with Obama, but zero signs? Statistically there should be 2. "Where's YOUR sign", you ask? Well I don't have a yard, so that doesn't help. Can't vote, can't put up a yard sign, and I can't convince anyone because that would involve people here to magically obtain the ability to reason. The only thing I can do is watch from the sideline and see the number of yard signs grow.
Primal instinct tells me to rip all these signs out of their yards, ritually burn them, and scream "I just did, Bitches!". But that's just because I don't have any reasonable way of explaining why people would still vote for an administration that raped them up the ass for eight years (and put up a sign to thank them for it). Seriously, what is wrong with republicans? Are they sadists? Maybe they are manufacturing an artificial Apocalypse to get to afterlife a little faster? I guess the latter would make the most sense to me. You know, since a large part of the GOP base consists of people who believe the collection of anecdotes and hearsay nonsense they call "The Holy Book" is actually, literally, the word of God. No wonder these people are immune to liberal concepts such as "reason" and "reality".
It's intensely frustrating to see this country go to waste. And I'm just a European, I shouldn't even care as much as I do. So I can't, for the life of me, imagine why there isn't more outrage at the current administration and the Republican party in general. Yes, a 30% approval rating for the president, an all time low. But still, that means 1 in 3 people who think it's all fine and dandy. When you look at the facts, and all the evidence is laid out, you just have to look at it, we should see anger of revolutionary proportions.
Instead, roughly 1 in 2 Americans are convinced that Father Time and Tina Fay are going to bring the change they deserve. Well people, it won't bring change, but McCain voters will surely get what they deserve. And then in 2012, when the US has officially become a second world country under the Palin administration, they will try their upmost to create an alternative reality in which they can blame "them leberals" again...and then...put up their goddamn yard signs!
¶ 9/23/2008 10:26:00 PM 8 Comments
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Number obsession
Ever since the Democratic primaries I've been getting more and more interested in polling numbers and statistics. To me, it's fascinating to follow this massive attempt to predict where the presidential race is heading. I've been getting familiar with terms such as margin of error, sample size, house effect, trend line adjustments, it's a world on it's own.
I've been following these numbers so closely that I have to keep reminding myself that there's only one poll that counts: the one on election day. Still, looking at numbers is suprisingly entertaining to me (and at times: nerve wrecking) .
There's so many pollsters out there at the moment that the best source for information on where the race stands are websites that weigh and average all the polls (poll of polls).
For raw information I suggest pollster.com:
pollster.com
Here you'll find every single poll that comes out during the day. They even have an RSS feed for the hardcore number junkies.
For an accurate poll accumulation and analysis there's nothing better than fivethirtyeight:
fivethirtyeight.com
Here they weigh polls based on their reliability in the past, adjust the data according to recent trends and what's most impressive to me: simulate the results 10,000 times based on the results of the projection to account for the uncertainty in the estimates. On top of that I also enjoy reading their background analysis.
One post I want to point out:
Tie Probability Continues to Increase
This has never crossed my mind until I saw it mentioned a couple of months ago: but a tie on election day is a very probable scenario. In case you don't know what happens should this occur: I have learned that members of the House of Representatives will choose the next president. Since it's almost certain that Democrats will have the majority of House delegations, this should be fun. On top of that, in 80% of the simulations where the result ends up in a tie the Republicans actually win the popular vote.
Can you imagine? The ultimate payback for 2000! ¶ 9/20/2008 12:36:00 PM 2 Comments
I've been following these numbers so closely that I have to keep reminding myself that there's only one poll that counts: the one on election day. Still, looking at numbers is suprisingly entertaining to me (and at times: nerve wrecking) .
There's so many pollsters out there at the moment that the best source for information on where the race stands are websites that weigh and average all the polls (poll of polls).
For raw information I suggest pollster.com:
pollster.com
Here you'll find every single poll that comes out during the day. They even have an RSS feed for the hardcore number junkies.
For an accurate poll accumulation and analysis there's nothing better than fivethirtyeight:
fivethirtyeight.com
Here they weigh polls based on their reliability in the past, adjust the data according to recent trends and what's most impressive to me: simulate the results 10,000 times based on the results of the projection to account for the uncertainty in the estimates. On top of that I also enjoy reading their background analysis.
One post I want to point out:
Tie Probability Continues to Increase
This has never crossed my mind until I saw it mentioned a couple of months ago: but a tie on election day is a very probable scenario. In case you don't know what happens should this occur: I have learned that members of the House of Representatives will choose the next president. Since it's almost certain that Democrats will have the majority of House delegations, this should be fun. On top of that, in 80% of the simulations where the result ends up in a tie the Republicans actually win the popular vote.
Can you imagine? The ultimate payback for 2000! ¶ 9/20/2008 12:36:00 PM 2 Comments
Friday, September 19, 2008
What Would Republican Jesus Do?
I don't know who to credit for this, but whoever you are: funny. ¶ 9/19/2008 04:16:00 PM 0 Comments
I don't know who to credit for this, but whoever you are: funny. ¶ 9/19/2008 04:16:00 PM 0 Comments
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Making a bet
1. Wall Street plunges despite AIG bailout
2. From today's The Diageo / Hotline poll:
Who would do best job handling the economy?
Who would do best job handling national security?
1 + 2 = a Bin Laden / Al Qaeda video popping up in the upcoming weeks, or possibly even in the last week of October. Purely coincidental, of course. ¶ 9/17/2008 12:10:00 PM 2 Comments
2. From today's The Diageo / Hotline poll:
Who would do best job handling the economy?
Who would do best job handling national security?
1 + 2 = a Bin Laden / Al Qaeda video popping up in the upcoming weeks, or possibly even in the last week of October. Purely coincidental, of course. ¶ 9/17/2008 12:10:00 PM 2 Comments
Saturday, September 13, 2008
What's wrong with this headline?
Ike may or may not bring death. But you better watch out, because when it does bring death it's certain death, not just the possibility of death. It certainly may bring possible death, or it will almost certainly bring you close to being in a state of death. Either way, CNN certainly is full of shit.
¶ 9/13/2008 01:44:00 PM 2 Comments
Ike may or may not bring death. But you better watch out, because when it does bring death it's certain death, not just the possibility of death. It certainly may bring possible death, or it will almost certainly bring you close to being in a state of death. Either way, CNN certainly is full of shit.
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Starting, again
I've decided to start this old blog up again. Not so much because I care to contribute to social or polictical discussions. There's nothing I can say that hasn't been said before. It's more of a therapy thing I guess. It's a way of trying to maintain a form of sanity amidst this hurricane of idiocy that hits me right in the face when I turn on the TV, read the newspapers or even do something random like grocery shopping. I have a lot of anger in me because of it, so instead of punching (another) hole in the wall or running through the streets gently screaming "AAAAAAAAAAAH!" while furiously waving my fists above my head I thought writing would be the healthier choice.
¶ 9/06/2008 01:05:00 PM 2 Comments
